Insights
John Petersen of the Arlington Institute
John L. Petersen, President and founder of The Arlington Institute, is considered by many to be one of the most informed futurists in the world. He is the leading futurist who writes and thinks about high impact surprises–wild cards–that are global in scope, potentially disruptive, and intrinsically out of control. In 1989 Petersen founded The [...]
Continue reading...Ray Kurzweil & the Singularity
Ray Kurzweil is one of the luminaries who we see as a credible source of information. Ray has been described as “the restless genius” by the Wall Street Journal, and “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes. Inc. magazine ranked him #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States, calling him the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison,” [...]
Continue reading...International Panel on Climate Change – IPCC
See our post regarding our defintion of crediblility. Sterling Insights looks to this team of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view [...]
Continue reading...What are Wild Cards?
Wildcards are low probability future events, but if they were to occur they would have a significant impact on our future. Often, in scenario planning activities, participants will be asked to build a list of these wild cards. Examples of Wild Cards: Dramatic climate change, such that the rate of change of regional or global temperature (up [...]
Continue reading...What Are Weak Signals?
Definition of weak signals from Scenarios by Roadidea: “In organisational dynamics, a weak signal is: an idea or trend that will affect how we do business, what business we do, and the environment in which we will work new and surprising from the signal receiver’s vantage point (although others may already perceive it sometimes difficult to [...]
Continue reading...What Will the Future Be Like?
Here are links to websites that discuss the future. John Petersen: http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org/tai/john-l-petersen http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/26452/?p1=A4&a=f ”See The Future With a Search” http://www.wfs.org/futurist Shell’s Scenarios: http://www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshell/our_strategy/shell_global_scenarios/ (See also: http://www.sterlinginsights.com/insights/shell-energy-scenarios-to-2050) http://www.forbes.com/2007/10/13/futurist-business-consultant-tech-future07-cx_ee_1015futurist.html http://www.futurist.com/ http://www.newsoffuture.com/ - at first glance, there is some good material here. If you want some fodder for developing potential future scenarios, perhaps begin here. http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/may/26/future-planet-earth http://arstechnica.com/old/content/2006/09/7816.ars - scenarios http://abcnews.go.com/WN/SmartHome/story?id=4439570&page=1 http://www.isoc.org/tools/blogs/scenarios/ [...]
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Continue reading...Climate Change
The Vanishing Face of Gaia – Part One Corporate Knights presents Dr. James Lovelock, originator of The Gaia Hypothesis (also known as Gaia Theory), discussing the need for human adaptation and survival in a coming era of massive environmental change due to global heating. Part 1 in a series of 5 as Dr. Lovelock lectures [...]
Continue reading...Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050
Shell is famous for it’s ability to develop plausible scenarios for the future. We have gained a lot of insight from their work as we help our clients plan for the future. From Shell’s website: “Shell uses scenarios to explore the future. Our scenarios are not mechanical forecasts. They recognise that people hold beliefs and [...]
Continue reading...CASE: Los Angeles Best Babies Network
Overview: The goal was to create a visually compelling timeline that highlighted the accomplishments of the Los Angeles Best Babies Network. The challenge was that the Network had a mountain of disconnected data about their story and they needed this product hanging in a conference in two weeks. To meet the challenge, our strategy was [...]
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